The capability of generalizing to out-of-distribution data is crucial for the deployment of machine learning models in the real world. Existing domain generalization (DG) mainly embarks on offline and discrete scenarios, where multiple source domains are simultaneously accessible and the distribution shift among domains is abrupt and violent. Nevertheless, such setting may not be universally applicable to all real-world applications, as there are cases where the data distribution gradually changes over time due to various factors, e.g., the process of aging. Additionally, as the domain constantly evolves, new domains will continually emerge. Re-training and updating models with both new and previous domains using existing DG methods can be resource-intensive and inefficient.

The capability of generalizing to out-of-distribution data is crucial for the deployment of machine learning models in the real world.

The capability of generalizing to out-of-distribution data is crucial for the deployment of machine learning models in the real world. Existing domain generalization (DG) mainly embarks on offline and discrete scenarios, where multiple source domains are simultaneously accessible and the distribution shift among domains is abrupt and violent. Nevertheless, such setting may not be universally applicable to all real-world applications, as there are cases where the data distribution gradually changes over time due to various factors, e.g., the process of aging. Additionally, as the domain constantly evolves, new domains will continually emerge. Re-training and updating models with both new and previous domains using existing DG methods can be resource-intensive and inefficient.

Due to their complex structures, these models are generally accessed as black boxes. To assess their reliability and safeguard against potential errors, it is important to quantify the uncertainty in their outputs. Predictive inference is a popular methodology for this purpose. It takes as input a prediction algorithm and calibration data, and outputs a prediction set that contains the true outcome with a prescribed probability. The validity of the prediction set hinges on the assumption that the calibration data truthfully represents the underlying environment. However, this assumption is frequently violated in practice, where the data distribution may drift over time. Integrating data from both current and historical periods to construct faithful prediction sets remains a significant challenge. Despite a large body of literature on learning under distribution drift over the past two decades (Hazan and Seshadhri, 2009; Mohri and Muñoz Medina, 2012; Besbes et al., 2015; Hanneke et al., 2015; Mazzetto and Upfal, 2023; Huang and Wang, 2023), statistical inference within this context is much less explored.

Accurate spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting is crucial in aiding traffic managers in implementing control measures and assisting drivers in selecting optimal travel routes. Traditional deep-learning based methods for traffic flow forecasting typically rely on historical data to train their models, which are then used to make predictions on future data. However, the performance of the trained model usually degrades due to the temporal drift between the historical and future data. To make the model trained on historical data better adapt to future data in a fully online manner, this paper conducts the first study of the online test-time adaptation techniques for spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting problems. To this end, we propose an Adaptive Double Correction by Series Decomposition (ADCSD) method, which first decomposes the output of the trained model into seasonal and trend-cyclical parts and then corrects them by two separate modules during the testing phase using the latest observed data entry by entry. In the proposed ADCSD method, instead of fine-tuning the whole trained model during the testing phase, a lite network is attached after the trained model, and only the lite network is fine-tuned in the testing process each time a data entry is observed. Moreover, to satisfy that different time series variables may have different levels of temporal drift, two adaptive vectors are adopted to provide different weights for different time series variables. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic flow forecasting datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ADCSD method. The code is available at https://github.com/Pengxin-Guo/ADCSD.

The CoNLL-2003 English named entity recognition (NER) dataset has been widely used to train and evaluate NER models for almost 20 years. However, it is unclear how well models that are trained on this 20-year-old data and developed over a period of decades using the same test set will perform when applied on modern data. In this paper, we evaluate the generalization of over 20 different models trained on CoNLL-2003, and show that NER models have very different generalization. Surprisingly, we find no evidence of performance degradation in pre-trained Transformers, such as RoBERTa and T5, even when fine-tuned using decades-old data. We investigate why some models generalize well to new data while others do not, and attempt to disentangle the effects of temporal drift and overfitting due to test reuse. Our analysis suggests that most deterioration is due to temporal mismatch between the pre-training corpora and the downstream test sets. We found that four factors are important for good generalization: model architecture, number of parameters, time period of the pre-training corpus, in addition to the amount of fine-tuning data. We suggest current evaluation methods have, in some sense, underestimated progress on NER over the past 20 years, as NER models have not only improved on the original CoNLL-2003 test set, but improved even more on modern data. Our datasets can be found at https://github.com/ShuhengL/acl2023_conllpp.

Time-varying stochastic optimization problems frequently arise in machine learning practice (e.g. gradual domain shift, object tracking, strategic classification). Although most problems are solved in discrete time, the underlying process is often continuous in nature. We exploit this underlying continuity by developing predictor-corrector algorithms for time-varying stochastic optimizations. We provide error bounds for the iterates, both in presence of pure and noisy access to the queries from the relevant derivatives of the loss function. Furthermore, we show (theoretically and empirically in several examples) that our method outperforms non-predictor corrector methods that do not exploit the underlying continuous process.

Forecasting future outcomes from recent time series data is not easy, especially when the future data are different from the past (i.e. time series are under temporal drifts). Existing approaches show limited performances under data drifts, and we identify the main reason: It takes time for a model to collect sufficient training data and adjust its parameters for complicated temporal patterns whenever the underlying dynamics change. To address this issue, we study a new approach; instead of adjusting model parameters (by continuously re-training a model on new data), we build a hypernetwork that generates other target models' parameters expected to perform well on the future data. Therefore, we can adjust the model parameters beforehand (if the hypernetwork is correct). We conduct extensive experiments with 6 target models, 6 baselines, and 4 datasets, and show that our HyperGPA outperforms other baselines.

Language use changes over time, and this impacts the effectiveness of NLP systems. This phenomenon is even more prevalent in social media data during crisis events where meaning and frequency of word usage may change over the course of days. Contextual language models fail to adapt temporally, emphasizing the need for temporal adaptation in models which need to be deployed over an extended period of time. While existing approaches consider data spanning large periods of time (from years to decades), shorter time spans are critical for crisis data. We quantify temporal degradation for this scenario and propose methods to cope with performance loss by leveraging techniques from domain adaptation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort to explore effects of rapid language change driven by adversarial adaptations, particularly during natural and human-induced disasters. Through extensive experimentation on diverse crisis datasets, we analyze under what conditions our approaches outperform strong baselines while highlighting the current limitations of temporal adaptation methods in scenarios where access to unlabeled data is scarce.